How can the "return of the Taliban" in Afghanistan affect the interests of India, Iran and Turkey? | infodesk4n

News of the Taliban occupation of various parts of Afghanistan has raised concerns around the world and many countries are watching the return of the United States.

While Afghanistan's neighbors, especially Pakistan, have reacted to recent events, there have been many indications from major countries in the region, such as India, Iran and Turkey, that they too are concerned about Afghanistan's future. I am worried about

For example, there has been a lot of concern in Indian diplomatic circles in recent days, and Indian Foreign Minister SJ Shankar's visit to Iran on Thursday takes place in the same context.

During his stay, SJ Shankar met with newly elected President Ibrahim Raeesi in Tehran and conveyed the message from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, on the same day that the Indian foreign minister was in Tehran, a delegation from the Afghan government and the Taliban was also present.

Later, when Jay Shankar arrived in Russia, representatives of the Taliban were also present. However, India has not released an official statement on the existence of a meeting between the two sides.

There have been reports of informal talks between India and the Taliban in the past, but Indian officials have consistently denied them.

However, some analysts believe India is now in contact with the Taliban for some reason.

Muqtada Khan, a professor of international affairs at the University of Delaware in the United States, says he has reasons for him to have indirect talks with the Taliban.

What is the current situation in Afghanistan?

The Taliban have claimed control of the entire country in two weeks if they so wish, and a third of Afghanistan is currently believed to be under the control of the militant group.

Generals in command of foreign forces in Afghanistan say the situation in the country suggests a civil war.

According to Professor Muqtada Khan, the coming to power of the Taliban will increase unrest in Pakistan, Iran, China and India. "The Taliban have reached the Chinese border. They can create a threat in Indian-administered Kashmir, they can Talibanize Pakistan, Iran is not far from this threat. In the coming months, we can see that relations between these countries are reshaping. .

The role of Iran

There is a 945-kilometer-long border between Iran and Afghanistan and yesterday the Taliban claimed to have captured some towns near the Iranian border.

Iran, with a Shiite majority, has never openly supported the Taliban, but in the past it has hosted peace talks between representatives of the Afghan government and the extremist Taliban group, most of whose members belong to the Sunni school of thought.

Iran has historically opposed the US presence in Afghanistan, calling it a threat to its security.

After the talks in Tehran last week between the representatives of the Afghan government and the Taliban, Iran said that "Iran is committed to resolving the crisis in Afghanistan after the failure of the United States".

India in Afghanistan

New Delhi has openly supported the Afghan government and opposed the Taliban. India has also invested $ 3 billion in Afghanistan since 2002 and has interests in both security and the economy.

India fears that the situation in Kashmir will suffer if the influence of the Taliban increases in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is said to have a lot of influence over some Taliban groups and if the Taliban's hold on Afghanistan is strengthened, this situation will not be good for India.

Some Taliban groups have repeatedly attacked Indian troops in Afghanistan. However, India may have to change its priorities in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US-led NATO forces.

Sosti Rao, professor of international affairs at the Muslim University of Aligarh, said: "India has invested a lot in Afghanistan, investing 7,200 km in the north-south corridor that will go from Iran to Russia." If there is a problem, it will affect a lot of people.

The reaction of India

Analysts believe India is active in Afghanistan and taking concrete steps.

Umair Anas, assistant professor at Yildirim Bayezit University in Ankara, Turkey, says the Indian foreign minister's visit to Iran has significance.

"Iran fears that if the Taliban can gain full control of Afghanistan. India and Iran have common interests in Afghanistan and both can cooperate in this matter.

    In the past, India was active in Afghanistan with the United States, but there was no such alliance with Iran and Russia.

Anas says a Taliban delegation was present before SJ Shankar arrived in Tehran. The Taliban were also present when they arrived in Russia. It appears that India is currently working on Afghanistan with both Iran and Russia.

Swasti Rao says: "The Government of India has maintained good relations with the Government of Afghanistan and has made long-term investments in these relations. After the departure of the United States, a kind of vacuum is being created which could affect interests. Indians ". India is likely in talks with Russia and Iran to protect India.

On the other hand, India was also a big buyer of Iranian oil, but due to US sanctions it had to ban it starting in 2019.

Professor Umair Anas says Iran has a new president and India wants to take the opportunity to negotiate with the new Iranian government to discuss oil prices. He hopes that some sanctions on Iran will be lifted after the arrival of US President Joe Biden, and that India will take advantage of them.

On the other hand, Professor Muqtada Khan says that Iran's role in the new security situation in Afghanistan will also be important.

Although no statements were made following the visit of the Indian foreign minister, India has indicated that it wants to maintain relations with Iran despite the anti-Iranian policy of the United States. In a way, it is a signal to the United States that relations between the United States and India will continue to improve, but that India will maintain its foreign policy.

The influence of Turkey in Afghanistan and the role of India

Turkey's role in Afghanistan is expected to become more important after the withdrawal of US troops and security command at Kabul airport will remain in the hands of NATO member Turkey.

If Turkey's role in Afghanistan grows, it will also affect India-Turkey relations.

After Turkey's statements on Kashmir, the gap between India and Turkey has widened and Turkey is also closer to Pakistan than India. But analysts believe Afghanistan could bring India and Turkey closer.

Professor Muqtada Khan says: “Relations between Turkey and India are not the same as those of Turkey with Pakistan. But if Pakistan is with the Taliban in the Afghan civil war, then perhaps Turkey and India can get closer because the Turkish government supports the Afghan government.

Professor Umair Anas says it would be more effective if Turkey, Iran, Russia and India formulated a common policy on Afghanistan.

Analysts believe that if India improves relations with Turkey, India will have a chance to increase its influence across Central Asia.

Will China also increase its influence in Afghanistan?

Although China's involvement in Afghanistan is unclear, the situation in Afghanistan could affect China's interests.

China has invested heavily in Pakistan's China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

C-Pak could be threatened in the event of a civil war in Afghanistan. Analysts believe China will not hesitate to negotiate with the Afghan government or the Taliban.

Relations between China and Pakistan are very strong. Experts say China may be able to use its influence in Pakistan to influence the Taliban and may even want to invest in Afghanistan.

Professor Swasti Rao says it is believed that China could become a strong player in Afghanistan sooner or later.

"India feels that China can play its role in Afghanistan in the future, which will increase its influence there," he said. In view of this, India is trying to protect and promote its interests by establishing good relations with other countries in the region.

China's involvement in Afghanistan could also impact Central Asia, which is a cause for concern for Turkey.

Turkey supports Uzbek and Hazara groups in Afghanistan and wants to stop the influence of the Taliban so that they and India can work together.

Umair Anas says Turkey may want Pakistan to reduce its dependence on China and move to the West.