Coronary virus: How did people know for years that an outbreak would be like code 19?

 The global coronary virus outbreak, known as Covid 19, couldn't be easier to predict. I am making this complaint based on my report.

 

In October 2019, I witnessed a simulation of a fake global coronavirus outbreak. Likewise, in the spring of 2017, I wrote an article for Time magazine on the same topic. Read the front page of the magazine: "Warning: the world is not ready for another global epidemic".

I do not want to convey in any way that I recommend the mother to be inactive. During the last fifteen years, many articles and white papers on a global pandemic have been published, warning that a new disease affecting our respiratory system is about to spread.

Didn't you know when? At BBC Future 2018, we wrote that this is just a global flu pandemic and that there may be millions of undetected viruses around the world.

One expert told us: "I think the risk of a new global pandemic outbreak is very high.

In 2019, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services conducted a global pandemic exercise called the Crimson Contagion, which introduced the concept of a global flu pandemic that has spread from China to the rest of the world. The parable predicted that the disease would kill 586,000 people in the United States alone.

As of April 6, more than 1.2 million people worldwide were infected with Quinine Nineteen and the death toll had risen to 70,000 and the virus had spread to every continent except Antarctica. In fact, it was a global epidemic even before the World Health Organization 's announcement on 11 March. We should imagine in advance.

Nineteen Cove is a return to an old and familiar enemy. There have never been so many deaths from diseases caused by viruses, bacteria and parasites. Natural disasters like an earthquake did not kill so many people, and there were no wars.

Mass Murderer

Let’s take the example of mosquito-carrying malaria. It has stalked people for thousands of years, and while the death toll has dropped dramatically over the last two decades, it still kills half a million people every year.

Epidemics seem to have worsened over the last millennium and the scale of the death toll is incomprehensible in today 's coronavirus era.

In the 6th century AD, the Justinian plague killed about 50 million people, probably half the world's population. Then, in the 14th century, a plague known as the Black Death killed 200 million people.

In the 20th century, smallpox killed nearly 300 million people, although an effective vaccine and the world's first vaccine against the disease had been available since 1796.

 

Between 50 and 100 million people died from the global flu pandemic in 1918, more than during the First World War. The epidemic has affected one in three people worldwide.

The global HIV epidemic still exists and there is no vaccine for it. An estimated 32 million people have died from HIV and 1.5 million people are living with it, which is increasing every day.

These figures are surprising because epidemics are not mentioned in history lessons today. Not long ago, these were the bitter realities of life. Those who have suffered from these diseases can hardly remember.

Historian Alfred Crosby wrote a book on the flu epidemic in 1918 entitled "America's Forgotten Pandemic". He was inspired to write the book after studying the global epidemic which revealed that the average age in the United States had dropped from 51 to 39 in 1917. This deficiency was caused by a virus that did not exceed 120 nanometers (yes, the nanometer is equal to one billion meters).

The virus gains supremacy

Decorations are considered a mass killer because they have the ability to grow rapidly. This difference distinguishes them from other dangers to humans. Each moving bullet has a driver and a target. Any natural disaster would be limited to one area or region, for example an earthquake in China would not have a direct impact on the UK.

But when a person receives a virus, such as a coronavirus, the human body becomes infected like a factory that produces a virus. However, bacteria have the ability to grow when a favorable environment is available.

Symptoms caused by infectious bacteria, such as sneezing, coughing, or bleeding, help make it the next host and therefore the next host. The infectious capacity of the virus is measured in R0, or how many people are able to contract the infection. (Imperial College London estimates the R0 for this novel coronavirus to be between 1.5 and 3.5. And because people have relationships ranging from handshaking to intercourse, germs travel with them too.

Unsurprisingly, the military has long tried to use the disease as a weapon. Not surprisingly, more soldiers died from disease than from combat. Germs are a very cheap weapon that goes from prey to prey.

The risk of disease and many other realities has limited human development and expansion. At the beginning of the 19th century, the average age of the world was only 29 years. It wasn't the reason people couldn't live long, but many died in their youth from illnesses, complications were not treated during maternity or injuries.

The balance of the urban population was only maintained due to migration from rural areas. These migrants have replaced those who died of disease in the cities. The principles of hygiene, the invention of vaccines and antibiotics have changed this balance.

 This victory introduced us to the modern world we live in today.

Best promise

It is difficult to understand how quickly it seems to us that we have won this war. I may have contracted the flu in 1918. My Dadhyal and Nanhial spent their youth before penicillin was discovered. My parents were born in 1954 before the invention of the polio vaccine.

In the developing world, we are more likely to die from a noncommunicable disease, such as cancer, heart disease, etc., rather than from an infectious disease. The decline of the epidemic is clear evidence that life on earth has improved.

Mark Lipsich is from the Harvard TH China School of Public Health in Boston, USA and is considered one of the leading infectious disease specialists. When I met him in 2018 to prepare my book, he thought about the threat of a major epidemic to the real world.

They showed me a chart that gave details of outbreaks in the United States during the 20th century.

According to the chart, there has been a sharp decline in deaths from epidemics. In 1900, epidemics killed 800 out of 100,000 people, and in the last few years of this century, only 60 out of 100,000 people died.

 Only in 1918 was there a temporary increase in AIDS in the flu epidemic and in the 1980s. "Deaths from infectious diseases have decreased by 1% every year since the turn of the century," Lipsich said.

There is no end to the matter here

This was the good news. But the bad news is that Covid Nineteen reminded us that the epidemics aren't over yet. Indeed, new epidemics have emerged, such as SARS, HIV and Quinine Nineteen, which have quadrupled in the past century. The outbreaks appear to have tripled in 1980 alone.

There are various reasons for this increase. One is that the world population has doubled over the past 50 years. This means that more people are available to contract infectious diseases and then spread them to others. We have more livestock today than in the past ten thousand years, and they are a way to transmit the virus to humans.

As Cove Nineteen has shown, an integrated global economy is one of the reasons for the spread of epidemics and is also critical of the long and interconnected supply chain, because the disruption caused by epidemics is so great. It can easily create blanks.

 The ability to travel across the world in just twenty hours and travel from there with contaminated equipment has increased the risk of epidemics. In the past, long-distance travel was more likely to kill such germs.

Despite advances against epidemics, our progress is more vulnerable than germs, which grow 40 million times faster than humans.

Millions of people have been saved since the discovery of penicillin in 1928, but bacterial resistance to antibiotics is also on the rise. Doctors consider it a major threat to public health around the world. According to a study, in Europe alone, in 2018, 33,000 people died from diseases for which antibiotics were ineffective.

In 2013, the World Bank estimated that a 1918 flu-like outbreak could damage today's integrated global economy by up to $ 4 trillion. According to initial estimates, more than 1 trillion has been lost to Covid Nineteen so far.

Wood Nineteen took over the world in just a few months from a densely populated modern city of China. Scientists are working hard to understand the virus. But to prevent this immediately, we can only stop economic and social activities in the global capitalist system and try to stop the transmission of this virus. Communication and entertainment The internet and cell phones aside, we did what our ancestors did in the time of the plague.

Although there were predictions of an outbreak like Cove 19, we haven't taken significant steps to address it.

We must be prepared to face such a threat in the future. This is a real threat that we must face anyway. Therefore, it is important that we pay more attention to the World Health Organization, that we increase their capacity. The budget of the World Health Organization, responsible for the health of 7.8 billion people, is less than that of any large hospital in the United States.

We need to strengthen our ability to develop vaccines and convince pharmaceutical companies that their capital will not be damaged if the epidemic ends soon.

Our memory is a big problem. Politicians make a lot of promises after an epidemic like SARS or Ebola, but then they forget about it and don't provide adequate financial support.

I hope this is not the case for Covid 19. We must do everything necessary to eradicate this epidemic and make it a myth, not a prelude to future events.